The Numbers: Analysis of Data From Nov. 7 Election

Data from the Ingham County Clerk’s Office website reveals which precincts propelled Kerry Ebersole Singh, Mark Meadows and Erik Altmann to victory in the Nov. 7 elections. 

Singh ran well ahead of the pack, while Altmann and Meadows finished just ahead of Planning Commissioner Dan Bollman to claim the second two seats. The final vote stood as follows: 

Votes for Kerry Ebersole Singh appear on majority of the ballots. 

With a total of 5,480 votes cast in the City Council race, Singh is the only candidate to appear on a majority of ballots. With 62% of voters making Singh one of their three selections, she was well ahead of Meadows who was chosen by 44% of voters and Altmann who drew votes from 42%. 

In comparison to past elections, Dana Watson appeared on 48% of ballots in 2021 as the top vote getter. Voters only chose two candidates from a field of five candidates in that election, as opposed to selecting three candidates from a field of eight this year. (A separate election was held to fill a two-year Council seat in 2021.)

In 2019, a similar election with three open seats was held. That year, there were two candidates running well ahead as top vote getters: Jessy Gregg and Lisa Babcock drew 2,944 and 2,871 votes respectively. In other words, more than 65% of voters supported Gregg and just under 64% selected Babcock. 

There was a relatively strong turnout for a City Council election. 

Odd-year elections where City Council candidates are voted into office do not draw anywhere near the number of voters as midterm or Presidential elections. For example, in 2022 more than 55% of registered voters in East Lansing cast a ballot, compared to just 24% in 2023. Still, as far as off-year elections go, there was fairly good turnout. 

Turnout for this year’s City Council race was the second highest this decade, trailing only the 2017 race. That year, there were three candidates running for two seats, as Aaron Stephens defeated incumbent Susan Woods and Ruth Beier maintained her seat. 

Notably, the 2017 election had a ballot proposal to install an income tax in East Lansing that was of great interest to voters. Altmann and Meadows were serving on Council at the time and advocated for passing the proposal, which it eventually did – decisively. 

This year, there were three ballot proposals: One to expand the size of Council from five to seven members, another to move the swearing-in date of new Council members back to January, and a third that supports ranked-choice voting in city elections and gives the option of utilizing special elections to fill Council vacancies. The proposals to expand Council and move the swearing-in date were rejected by voters. The ranked-choice initiative passed. 

Altmann and Meadows rebound after fading in 2019. 

In 2015, voters strongly supported Meadows in his return bid to City Council after he left to serve as a state representative. That year, he earned 2,821 votes and was supported by 66% of voters. Altmann, meanwhile, was elected to his first stint on Council by gathering 2,212 votes, which came from support of 52% of voters. 

Then in 2019, tides turned against Meadows and Altmann as incumbent candidates, as they took a back seat to Gregg and Babcock. In that election, Meadows edged out Altmann by a mere two votes – 1,951 votes for Meadows to 1,949 for Altmann. Both candidates earned support from just over 43% of voters that year. 

While Altmann and Meadows earned a very similar percentage of support this year (44% for Meadows and 42% for Altmann), there were more candidates to pull votes in this year’s election than in 2019, which only had six candidates. Additionally, all eight candidates drew at least 800 votes this year and five drew more than 1,500 – further spreading out the ticket. In 2019, the fifth and sixth place finishers gathered only 1,397 and 628 votes despite the smaller field.

A higher turnout this year also meant more voters chose Altmann and Meadows than in 2019, as Meadows earned 463 more votes than he did four years ago and Altmann saw a bump of 378 votes. 

Ingham County voters overwhelmingly cast ballots via absentee. 

Since the passage of a ballot proposal that allowed for expanded absentee voting in Michigan in 2018, many voters have made the switch to voting by mail. 

This election cycle, there were 20,298 votes cast in Ingham County elections. Of those, 14,897 submitted via absentee ballot. Another 5,199 were cast on election day and 202 were done at early voting stations. This means that more than 73% of voters in Ingham County voted absentee. 

Singh sweeps non-MSU precincts while Bollman was strong in some neighborhoods despite finishing fourth. 

There are 12 voting precincts in East Lansing that are not on Michigan State University’s (MSU) campus. These precincts made up nearly all the votes this election cycle and each had the same favorite candidate: Singh. 

Beyond what was a resounding victory for Singh, there was a tight race between Meadows, Altmann and Bollman, who jockeyed for the remaining two seats on Council. 

Despite coming up short, Bollman finished in second place in two precincts (precincts two and three), which are made up of Chesterfield Hills and Glencairn/Oakwood neighborhood residents. Bollman also finished third in three other non-MSU precincts. 

Meadows collected the second most votes after finishing runner-up to Singh in eight different city precincts. Interestingly, Meadows did not finish third in any of the non-MSU precincts. Meadows performed the strongest in precincts that include Pinecrest neighborhood voters and in precinct 16, which sees voters from Red Cedar and Spartan neighborhoods. 

Altmann was able to claim the third seat on Council in part due to finishing second in a pair of non-MSU precincts, with votes from Bailey/Avondale and south Bailey neighborhood residents. Altmann found significant votes just about everywhere, as he finished third in nine other non-MSU precincts – leaving just one precinct (the Red Cedar/Spartan neighborhoods) where he did not finish in the top three. 

Student turnout was startlingly low in this election. 

After a line of engaged students wrapped around Brody Hall to vote during the 2022 midterm elections, students were praised for their engagement in a critical election. There was no such interest this year. Not even close. 

A map of the 17 precincts in East Lansing shows five are labeled as “Vote at MSU” – precincts 1, 12, 13, 14 and 15. At these five precincts, there were a total of 31 ballots cast on election day and another 15 cast via absentee. The precincts host a total of 3,325 registered voters. So, in other words, turnout was not great. 

Of the MSU precincts, only precinct 15 at Intramural (IM) Sports West cracked 2% turnout at 2.32%. Precinct 14 at IM Sports East received a single vote for a turnout of .26%. Precinct 13, also at IM Sports East, saw 13 total votes for a turnout of 1.34%, Precinct 12 at The MSU Student Union had five total votes cast for a .69% turnout and Precinct 1 at Brody Hall had 11 votes cast for a turnout of 1.95%. 

In 2022, the five MSU precincts saw 2,196 voters turn out to cast their ballots. With hot topics like abortion rights and the governor’s race on the 2022 ballot, there were also more voters registered in these precincts with 4,609. This means the precincts that just combined for a turnout of less than 2% of voters saw turnout over 47% a year ago.

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